香港新浪網 MySinaBlog
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會計仔 | 1st Sep 2008 | 財經 | (6205 Reads)
來自Fedstats 的數據: http://www.fedstats.gov/cgi-bin/imf/imf.cgi

Current price GDP (seasonally adjusted)  08Q2 (14312.5b) vs 08Q1 (14150.8b) + 161.7b (+1.1%).   Consumption +147.7 (+1.4%)

Real GDP 08Q2 (11740.3b) vs 08Q1 (11646b) + 94.3b (+0.8%)

Unemployment rate : 5.7% (July)  vs 5.5% (June).  Wages 18.06 (July) vs 18.00 (Jun)

CPI seasonally adjusted  219.18 (Jul) vs 217.40 (Jun) +  0.8%. PPI seasonally adjusted 183.9 (Jul) vs 181.7 (Jun) + 1.2% that means manufacturing sector can transfer their costs (even more) to consumer sector. Good news for manufacturing stocks but bad news for retails.

Size of government debt : USD9585.5b (Jul) vs 9492b (Jun). Average USD32000 per citizen in US.

M1  1379.7b (Jul) vs 1396b (Jun) - 1.2%, M2 7717.6b (Jul) vs 7728.1b (Jun) -0.2% . The velocity of money flowing (M1) is getting much slower, consumers are hesitate to spend money. M3 stopped to be disclosed for long, credit destruction continues.

Actually the biggest question is : how the nominal GDP (+1.4%) and real GDP (+0.8%) are seasonally adjusted to become +3.3%?

原來已寫了100 篇blog, 平均8日一篇,本來只是玩票性質, 怎知道會引來過百萬人次閱讀,也不知道會引來這麼多傳媒。寫Blog 兩年,益處是睇數估數越來越準,就如我偶像燦少所言,東西寫下來自己一定會更加清晰。也有幸和各博客主人作出不少精彩交流,實在獲益良多。將來會把多一點時間放回工作和家人身上,也會試下慢慢將一些睇數的方法和概念用較簡單的方法寫出 (唔會係debtors days/ creditors days 等 ABC 知識, sorry) 。我這裡sell 的是敢言、專業,缺點是低產量,相信這些短期內也不會改變。


[1] wheel

貴精不貴多嘛


[引用] | 作者 wheel | 1st Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[2]

產量少但質量高咪得囉....支持!


[引用] | 作者 大口仔 | 1st Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[3]

會計兄呢個blog係咁多個財經blog之中最高質素,並非好多所謂價值投資者一味齋talk。希望會計兄工作順利、家人健康,有時間再為大家寫多d好分析。


[引用] | 作者 jackbequick from HKdiscuss | 1st Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[4]

"睇數的方法和概念用較簡單的方法寫出" Personally, I appreciate this very much, for I really can't spare too much time to learn from textbooks. This has always been what I want to learn from bloggers, though it seems to be not much supply out there. Thanks.
Bravo


[引用] | 作者 Bravo | 2nd Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[5]

會計仔先生的blog的內容雖艱深、但精彩。當中最精彩的是在HSBC$150左右已看出其美國FI的問題。希望能繼續細味先生出的文章。


[引用] | 作者 Fragen | 2nd Sep 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[6]

季GDP公佈的是年化的季成長率,所以是((11740.3/11646)^4-1)*100%=3.3%


[引用] | 作者 ladon | 19th Nov 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[7]

補上參考資料:http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/NIPAhandbookch1-4.pdf,第77頁。


[引用] | 作者 ladon | 19th Nov 2008 | [舉報垃圾留言]