大跌原兇，有人話係周圍唔再比對沖基金沽空，大量對沖基金輸錢，比銀行追數，de-leveraging 之餘客戶贖回，要不計價沽貨。另外，大量對沖基金資產比雷曼凍結住，又係問題之一。市場估計，少於一半的對沖基金可在這個浪之後仍然生存。
不過，原來對沖基金贖回每年只有兩個限期，一是10月1日，二是11月1日，唔出聲就蘇州過後，明年10月請早。10月1日斷估佢地收左大量贖回order, 11月都唔會少掛? 究竟宜家只係沽左10月贖回既貨，定係已經沽埋11月既貨呢? 我冇本事估，要視乎閣下性格是否樂觀了。
後記: 多謝各街坊告知，日子應該是錯的，對沖基金相當困難是對的。
The hedge hangoverThe other issue ruining stock markets right now is that they cannot fulfil their function which is to properly determine fair price for equities and debt. The reason for this is another global governance failure: the proliferation of unregistered hedge funds in secrecy havens without any disclosure as to their ownership or activities.
Hedge fund investors are allowed to, once a year, give notice to their fund managers that they want out. The first deadline was Oct. 1 and the second Nov. 1. In other words, these investors have declared they want their money back by the end of the year giving either 90 days' notice or 60 days'.
The regulatory and investor problem is that there are US$2 trillion in hedge funds run out of the U.S. alone and nobody knows the percentage of redemptions they have been received. As one trader told me on Wall Street one month ago: "the hedge redemptions are enormous which means that these funds will be selling stocks to get cash to meet redemption requests into every stock market rally."
That means the markets will rally, be pushed down again to lower depths, rise to lower depths only to be pushed down, thus creating even more problems as margined accounts are sold into the lower values, mutual fund investors panick and on and on.
In this scenario, there is absolutely no such thing as a reliable pricing mechanism. There is absolutely no way in knowing which stocks are going to be dumped -- usually the best. And there is no way in determining whether this gigantic, global unwinding is a permanent revaluation lower of the world's wealth. In other words, there is absolutely no guarantee that multiples or share values will eventually return to their peak prices.
For me, buying and selling should not be an option at least until the U.S. election and probably until January 2009.
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/archive/2008/10/27/don-t-touch-stock-markets.aspx
