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會計仔 | 22nd Sep 2013 | 財經 | (27373 Reads)

大概去年四月左右, 我和一班戰友說國內外煤價嚴重倒掛, 煤價必暴跌, 那時候國內5500大卡煤價約左RMB700/ton左右。由於懶的關係, 結果到7月才將想法寫出來。今天, 在國內煤價RMB540的時候,我看到時件有機會重演, 在未來幾個月國際煤價有機會再暴跌。

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首先, 未看過我之前寫煤價下跌系列的, 請先看看: 煤價下跌系列- 頁岩氣革命, 煤價下跌系列 - 水電大發, 說好了的水電豐年三篇。

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先看看以下數據: 中國2012年電煤消耗量18.5億噸。20131-8月進口量2.13億噸, 增加15%, 年化數字3.2億噸, 出口量只有幾百萬噸, 幾乎可以不計。2011(煤價未跌時), 進口量1.7億噸。印度2012 煤進口1.37億噸, 85%來自印尼。印尼2013年化數據出口由去年的4.8億噸跌到4億噸, 中國和印度是最大的客仔, 出口中國(年化)由去的1.1億噸增加至1.3億噸, 出口印度由8000萬到1.2億噸。澳洲電煤出口由2012年的1.8億噸輕微增加到20131.9億噸左右。美國煤出口由2011年的1.07億噸增加20%20121.3億噸。蒙古煤以焦煤為主, 由於年初的時候要加出口稅, 2013年年化數據出口量由去年的2000萬噸跌到1300萬噸。(以下二圖為美國煤出口、及印尼煤出口數字) Picture

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數字上可以見到, 印尼煤因為國內產能大增, 出口暴升, 大量銷往中國及印度。印尼煤多是熱值較低的3200大卡及3900大卡, 污染較大, 但價錢平, 性價比高。當然美國自頁岩氣革命後國內用煤量慢慢下跌, 大量銷往歐洲, 印尼煤市場又少一個, 也導致了不斷要出口中印。當價錢平幾成的印尼煤銷到中國沿海, 就算計及運費和增值稅, 也要比中國本地煤平, 電廠和用煤企業自然也樂於使用, 過往國產煤善價而沽的算盤從此也打不響。

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一億印尼煤的進口量的影響遠比1/18億的比例大, 原因是它真是很平, 國產煤要跟著降價才保得住市場佔有率。運費也是一大塊錢, 過去十年是煤炭的黃金十年, 每天都會有貨車走到煤礦拉煤, 由鐵路運煤到沿海成本幾十元一噸, 如由公路去運, 就變成幾百, 但沿海電廠都沒有辦法, 照搶可也。現在有本來已經平的印尼煤運來, 又省回山長水遠的公路運輸, 大西北的煤炭, 只要能不到鐵路運力的, 需求大量消失, 立時供求關係掉轉, 不減就沒人要了。今時今日仍有大量煤要由內陸運出來, 只要印尼煤供應增加, 沿海電廠很樂意省下這幾百運費(包括各省政府的層層收費, 及各式「打點」), 要麼這幾百由你煤礦負責, 要麼我就買進口的。

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這幾個月炒復甦, 中國經濟好呀, 8月用電量上升13.4%, 煤自然用得多, 煤股上升不少。但要看看13%如何得來, 因為去年上升3.3%, 基數低呀。當然, 20129月上升2.9%, 所以20139月的上升幅度應該也可觀。

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另一個因素, 是天氣很熱, 遠比去年熱, 中國的用電, 第一產業幾乎不用電, 第二產業佔總用電量3/4, 第三產業和居民用電比例一樣, 各自1/8, 加起來1/4。第三產業和居民用電其中不少是冷氣。氣溫由30度升到35, 冷氣耗電量就上升2 (因為他們把冷氣調到24度上下), 今年至少氣溫上升了2, 我當1/4中的40%是冷氣吧, 25% x 2/5 x 200% x 40%, 這裡已經有8%增長。

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說完大量悶死人的數據, 入正題吧。我認為印尼煤的供應會在幾個月之內暴升, 原因是因為亞洲金融危機, 印尼盾和印度盧比暴跌, 圖中印尼盾是綠色線, 現跌17%左右, 印度盧比是藍色線, 最多跌15%Picture

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要知道, 煤在國際市場上是用美元計價的, 印尼煤有1.2億噸是銷向印度, 現在印度電廠以盧比計要給多15%才買到印尼煤啊! 煤佔電廠成本60-70%即是純利率要跌10%, 完全計不到數。現在印度的煤炭入口商不肯提貨, 大量煤船在港口積壓, 他們要在煩: 到底要貨, 再立即倒賣到別國好呢? 還是違約打官司好呢? 加價10%肯定不能, 全世界都說印度通漲失控, 才令盧比大跌。不過可以肯定的是, 如果印度盧比不馬上升回10-15%, 大部份新定單會馬上消失, 這個每天平均停電8小時的國度, 由停電8小時變做10小時也沒有什麼大不了。印度的最大國營電廠的CIL亦打算改用本來較貴的印度煤, 去取代因匯價問題變貴的印尼進口煤。印度盧比7月開始暴跌, 由於船期、合約、反應時間關係, 市場上對印尼煤的需求並沒有立即反映。

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而印尼出口商的賬就相反, 以印尼盾計, 大部份成本都不變, 柴油除外。其實以相同的美元價格賣出一噸煤, 他們以印尼盾計是收多了15%, 但是每年1.2億噸的印度需求將會消失, 應對的方法只有一個, 再減價5-10%, 把一部份印度客戶搶回來, 另一方面, 減價5-10%把煤賣到中國去, 好過堆積如山。這個銷售策略改變, 我相信會在第四季開始大量出現。大量低價印尼煤到來, 會令本來已比較平衡的內地煤市再添壓, 然後又再和內陸煤商惡性循環減下去。

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現在先看看部份關於印尼煤的新聞:

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Indian buyers have reduced shipments from top thermal coal exporter Indonesia and are seeking to renegotiate contracts as a sharply lower rupee has driven up their import costs, Indian and Indonesian industry and trade sources said on Tuesday.

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The fall in purchases from India is forcing Indonesian suppliers to seek other buyers or dump cargoes into the spot market, putting more pressure on international benchmark prices that are already near their lowest in four years. 

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"Some buyers have cancelled contracts or sought to renegotiate contracts, because now it's actually cheaper for them than fulfilling their obligations," ICMA commercial committee chairman Pandu Sjahrir told Reuters. "Sellers have been dumping into the market. They have to choose - should I take (buyers) to court or renegotiate with them or just sell it in the spot market?"

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/09/10/indonesia-coal-india-idINDEE98909V20130910

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As rupee sinks, CIL plans to substitute imported coal with domestic variety

State-run Coal India has decided to substitute its imported coal it supplies to consumers with high-grade output from its own mines, with the home variety becoming cheaper due to the rupee's depreciation. .... A few months ago, the price of landed thermal coal at Indian ports had dropped 30-40 %, erasing the price differential with Coal India's produce of the same variety. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-08-26/news/41455201_1_imported-coal-s-narsing-rao-state-run-coal-india

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Coal piles up at ports as rupee makes buyers renege on contracts

Mumbai: Major Indian ports have more than 3.5 million tonnes (mt) of coal stockpiles because importers are refusing to take deliveries as the rupee’s fall against the dollar has made the landed price of the fuel unexpectedly high. Defaults have taken place and some importers have deferred their purchases, according to an executive in a large foreign coal-importing company based in New Delhi. “Some ships destined to India are being diverted mid-route with the seller looking for other markets,” the executive at the coal importing company said. http://www.livemint.com/Industry/tdEIPhRmvbw19wy9l5u7OJ/Coal-piles-up-at-ports-as-rupee-makes-buyers-renege-on-contr.html

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第四季除了印尼煤帶來的效應, 還有暖冬效應。每天用煤量最多就是夏天冷氣和冬天取暖, 去年冬天是全球計差不多30年來最冷的冬天, 今個夏天, 也是中國近年比較熱的夏天, 但是煤價旺季不量, 去年冬季價錢仍有620, 第二季跌穿600, 在用電量暴升的7-8月時候跌至530, 原因是大陸煤商終於減價對抗印尼煤。

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跟據我對氣象學的一點認識, 我認為今個冬天將會比平常暖, 原因是今年太陽因為周期性因素有大量高能量粒子射到地球。在南半球的澳洲, 今個冬天就比long term average 1.3, 可見2013 solar maximum 的威力。就算我估不準, 只要今冬不再像去年一樣是30年來最冷的冬天的話, 用煤量將下跌, 電廠存貨將保持高位, 價格亦會易跌難升。

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還有,中國政府受去年的霧霾天氣嚇怕,今冬推行新政策,嚴打京津唐河北的小工業小鋼鐵,恐怕都會對用煤量有影響。

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短期影響煤價的因素就這些了,市場普遍預期第買季開始減電費2分,大概是4%吧,但第三季煤價跌了8%,第四季再跌,這已經遠超過減電費的影響,加上股價回落了這麼多,有值博率。

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中期的因素呢? 除了頁岩氣,還有美國超嚴格的新環保政策,在未來3-5年內預計有65%的煤電廠要關閉,大概可以騰出2億噸電煤作出口,問你死未?

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Study: 65 Percent Of Coal Plants In Danger Of Closure

New EPA regulations could force the closure of 65 percent of coal plants across the country, A Duke University study shows. http://indianapublicmedia.org/news/study-65-percent-coal-plants-danger-closure-48380/

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/12/utilities-firstenergy-coal-idUKL1N0FI19L20130712

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幾隻電股之中我選了華電(1071),原因一是價錢最平,5P/E多一點,二是利息成本高,現在財政改善每年不計capex100現金回籠可以減債。以往借錢全靠銀行,現在自己發債息率較低,起碼省去1.5厘。三是不似華潤有同系自營煤礦,被迫為同系捐軀。四是在四川有水電站,雖然佔得不多,但7月四川的超級大暴雨將對業績有幫助。順帶一提,  2380今年盈利已見頂,原因是要溶的冰都溶了,明年不會再發大水,已走鬼。五,在全世界挾淡倉沽電股買煤股的第三季,煤價暴跌,現在並未回升,只是跌勢減慢。六是維修費用在所有電股中上升由度最大,超過50%,遠比其他為高。為何高反而是好呢?因為大部份電廠設計時都是考慮用大陸煤,並不是像現在一樣用低熱值的印尼煤混高熱值的澳洲煤一起用。所以必須要改裝,大部份改裝費都會算入回定資產,少部份會出維修費用。就算改裝完成,低熱值、高水份、高硫的印尼煤會損壞設備(雖然計及損壞完仍是平很多),維修費用升幅越高,即是改用印尼煤的電廠百份比越高,受惠越高。核對一下華電的主力火電廠都在山東、遼寧一帶,沿海,改用印尼煤非常合理。


[1]

終於又見會計仔,真激動!! 精彩依舊,I enjoy reading your papers so much! 謝謝分享!

在下不才,沒有看明白文中的 25% x 2/5 x 200% x 40%。 第一個 25% 是第三產業和居民用電比例之和, 對不對? 第二個 2/5 是 5 度氣溫差中的 2 度,對不對? 200% 是什麼? 文中你有說氣溫上升 5 度時, 冷氣耗電量就上升 3 倍的, 是不是應該 300%? 最後那個 40% 應該是 40% 的用電量耗在製冷上面, 對不對?

最喜歡看會計仔怎樣分析問題和使用數據了。如今您這樣做基本面分析的不是很多。再次謝謝!


[引用] | 作者 紋錦 | 27th Sep 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[2]

上升2倍, typo.


[引用] | 作者 會計仔 | 27th Sep 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[3]

謝謝回覆。還有幾個疑問:

* 您這個 “40%” 用在冷氣上,是怎樣估得的?覺得這個參數在整個增量模型中比較關鍵,所以有此一問.

* 覺得氣溫那項您數據用得比較保守。今年夏天華東地區長時間創紀錄高溫 (40 度以上),到現在第三季都快結束上海江浙地區仍有 25 度以上。您用的是 30 到 35 度的溫差。當然保守數據仍然得出 8% 的增量,其實更實在。

題外:以前的文章大量廣東話用字,在下讀來比看外文更加吃力,現在好懂多了,謝謝會計仔使用中文!


[引用] | 作者 紋錦 | 28th Sep 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[4]

40% is assumption, no data to prove.

會計仔
[引用] | 作者 會計仔 | 28th Sep 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[5]

Analysis: Bali coal meeting:
Lacking a positive catalyst

We attended the 3rd Annual Business Meeting of Indonesian Coal Producers and Buyers, held at The Stones Hotel, Legian, Bali on 23-24 September 2013. The conference was attended by around 150 participants (mostly local), including speakers.

One of the speakers explained that producers were looking at volume strategy to reduce fixed costs, exacerbating oversupply. He further stated that several coal producing countries had seen weaker local currencies (e.g. Indonesia, Australia and South Africa), salvaging margins. With no signs of a production slowdown, the speaker believed coal prices would remain at current levels or even dip further. Coal prices will only rise once existing production works itself out with green field mining required, estimated to occur post-2020.

We spoke with Chinese coal traders who thought coal would remain a dominant source of energy through 2025, although they believe that nuclear power plants may be on the rise in China. They also mentioned that large Chinese coal producers, which accounted for around 50-60 percent of the total Chinese coal production, were implementing a price cut strategy to gain a market share, especially in coastal cities, to battle imports that benefit from low freight costs.

While participants remain quite optimistic on the long-term coal market outlook, none of the speakers expressed hope for any coal price rebound in the near future. We notice there is a switch in the mindset of coal miners. While in the past, Indonesian coal miners thought the downfall in coal price would just be a passing trend, now they think the price weakness is here to stay. Hence, Indonesian coal miners have also shifted their strategy from boosting volumes on strong prices to a strategy of survival.

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/09/26/analysis-bali-coal-meeting-lacking-a-positive-catalyst.html


[引用] | 作者 會計仔 | 29th Sep 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[6]

但現在好像說煤價往上喎...怎會向下呢?


[引用] | 作者 lemon | 1st Oct 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[7] Re: 會計仔
會計仔 :
40% is assumption, no data to prove.

bold assumption: the fundamental "problem" of fundamental analysis, hehe :)

Well actually such quantified assumption of relatively measurable consumption ain't that bold. Even bolder is consumption of some high-level policies....


[引用] | 作者 紋錦 | 2nd Oct 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[8] Re: 紋錦

oops, type in my last comment:

consumption of some high-level policies --> assumption of some high-level policies....


[引用] | 作者 紋錦 | 2nd Oct 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[9] Re: 會計仔
會計仔 :
Analysis: Bali coal meeting:Lacking a positive catalystWe attended the 3rd Annual Business Meeting of Indonesian Coal Producers and Buyers, held at The Stones Hotel, Legian, Bali on 23-24 September 20...

ha, so it seems that you've successfully identified the trend. Good job in this blog post anyway!


[引用] | 作者 紋錦 | 2nd Oct 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]

[10]

nice work!


[引用] | 作者 orangepig | 6th Oct 2013 | [舉報垃圾留言]

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